In the wake of Viktor Orbán's electoral defeat, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's opponents are finding hope, but they face an uphill battle. While Orbán's 16-year reign in Hungary has ended, Erdoğan's grip on power in Turkey remains strong, and the opposition's path to success is fraught with challenges.
The comparison between Turkey and Hungary is not without merit. Both leaders have eroded democratic institutions, with Orbán accused of controlling the judiciary and media, and enriching himself and his allies. Erdoğan employs similar tactics to secure his power in Turkey, a pattern the EU has repeatedly criticized in its reports on Turkey's EU membership bid.
However, the Turkish opposition's optimism may be tinged with wishful thinking. The political landscape in Turkey is far more complex than in Hungary. Erdoğan's government has been accused of using various means to pressure the opposition, including jailing opposition figures like Ekrem İmamoğlu, the imprisoned Istanbul mayor and presidential candidate.
Howard Eissenstat, a Turkey expert, notes that while Orbán's defeat in Hungary carries important lessons for Turkey, the opposition's path to democracy is more treacherous. Eissenstat argues that Erdoğan's opponents face a steeper climb, as the Turkish president employs tactics that would be unimaginable in a European Union country.
The Turkish opposition's hope for a generational change is understandable, given the age gap between Erdoğan (72) and his potential challengers. However, the political landscape in Turkey is far more complex than in Hungary, and the opposition must navigate a web of challenges, including economic turmoil, high inflation, and corruption, to stand a chance of success.
